Follow the Money

Praguetory’s popped up in comments (with a stammer) to offer some sage advice…

As for the impact of the defections, follow the money on the money on the betting markets.

Fair enough, given that William Hill have opened books on both upcoming by-elections.

For Ealing Southall, you get a winner only bet with Labour’s Virendra Sharma installed as 4/7 favourite, Tony Lit at 9/4 and Lib Dem candidate, Nigel Bahkai, trailing in third in the bookies’ estimation at 9/2.

Meanwhile the Sedgefield By-election gives a choice of bets.

You can take the straight win, with Labour at 1/200,  the Tories at 25/1 and the Lib Dems at 33/1, or you can go for a bet on Labour’s percentage share of the vote where you’ll get evens on 60%+, 11/10 on anything under 59% and 6/1 against nailing it dead at 59-60%.

One word of caution before lumping any cash on:

There is an old Lib dem by-election trick that I am certain will be deployed by one or both of the opposition parties. They pile money on their candidate, see the odds drop, then put out a release to show “campaign momentum”. Given that the Tories and Lib Dems are slugging it out for the infamous by-election bandwagon, they might both be piling on the cash though. Could be very funny.

What was that old proverb about a fool and their money…?

6 thoughts on “Follow the Money

  1. Of course, the Tories need a 13.6% swing from Labour to win this safe Labour seat. Nationally, this would leave Labour with 63 seats in Parliament! The fact that the Tory candidate is even a contender is evidence of a superb candidate and an excellent campaign.

  2. Not at all. Apply the swing required for Tony Lit to win Ealing Southall nationally and Labour end up with just 63 seats!

    Let me help you. Insert Con 46.84 (up 13.6 on 2005) Lab 22.6 (down 13.6 on 2005) and insert the Dems 2005 result (22.6) into

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

    and the following results appear on electoral calculus nationwide.

    Con 491
    Lab 63
    Lib 65

    Tory majority of 332. OWNED. PT.

  3. Ah, I see – wanking over impossible scenarios as usual.

    A single party has won more than 400 seats in a general election (since the Great Reform Act) on only seven occasion, and never as many 491. The record number of seats (470) and the only time any party has come close to those numbers was the 1931 general election at the height of the Great Depression, and even that left Ramsay McDonald as PM at head of a National Unity government.

    You have to go back to 1924 and the collapse of Asquith’s Liberal to find the last time the Tories won more than 400 seats – Labour did it twice in 1997 and 2001 – and back to the 1945 election for the last time any party got close to 50% of the popular vote.

    Still, you obviously find such scenarios comforting, so you go right on deluding yourself.

  4. I made the point that a Conservative victory would be massive then helped you with your maths when you *cough* got your sums wrong.

    No need for thanks, but I don’t need the history lesson or the bad language you usually spew when you’re feeling sore.

  5. I’ve not seen this mentioned elsewhere, but has anyone looked at the bookies odds for the next GE lately? They appear to have shifted quite sharply.

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